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| Research & summaries produced by Software Scientific Ltd |
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On 04/10/2005 Software Scientific's Concept Engine TM read 1,000 documents and considered 47,181 links
Research based on What will be the impact of Peak Oil on economic growth?
Relevant Documents
Relevant Documents
These documents are arranged in order of relevance to your query. See also Relevant Documents
| Document | Summary |
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| BEFORE THE |
| The Manila Times Internet Edition | BUSINESS > East Asian economic growth to peak this year at 7.1% |
| GCC: Full steam ahead to monetary union | SCB Economic UpdateCentral banks reaffirm the terms for setting up of single currency in 2010: Ability to meet economic criteria depends largely on oil prices; FX volatility in the region to increase over time.Given high oil prices, it will surprise few that all 6 countries are expected to comply with the fiscal, debt & FX reserve criteria by the end of 2005. However, strong oil prices in 2005 will boost government revenues, allowing the Saudi government to pay down its debt while also boosting the level of nominal GDP, pushing this ratio down. Therefore, if oil prices were to slump dramatically, then budget deficits may once again rear their ugly heads & jeopardise compliance. One option being pursued by the UAE is to implement a value-added tax in order to improve the country's resilience to lower oil prices. In March, a senior GCC official suggested there is scope for flexibility should low oil prices induce a temporary increase in the budget deficit. i While this is not inconceivable in the event that we see a sharp slowdown in global economic activity, its ? not expected to happen either this year or next as oil supply conditions remain relatively tight. i i |
| The Price of Oil and Economic Growth | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News |
| NewsGateway - Economy Restructruring and Peak Oil |
| Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections = Oil Prices, Economic Growth and World Oil DemandConventional economic reasoning, embodied in the notion of 'price elasticity' of demand, is that large oil price rises will necessarily cut oil demand & economic growth, perhaps resulting in zero economic growth, or recession. i So-called 'delinking' of oil from economic growth, in the early 1980s, was simply the interaction of intense economic recession & one-time energy savings due to energy conservations programs & polices engaged in the 1970s, after the Oil Shocks of that time. As already stated, higher oil prices, up to at least the $50-$60/barrel range, will almost certainly increase oil demand growth rates through the macoreconomic impacts of higher oil & energy prices at the world or composite global level. i This relationship,..., was typically close to 0.75 (a 1% growth in real GDP entraining a 0.75% increase in oil demand by volume). i As economic growth, oil consumption 'bounced back' rapidly, with typical oil demand growth rates approaching 3-fifths to 3-quarters the annual rate of real GDP growth. i The fact that adjustment was much slower following the 2nd Oil Shock can be considered normal given the oil price level achieved, & the extreme interest rates of the period, but the fact there was adjustment at all indicates the intrinsic & total dependence of 'classic' or conventional economic growth on increased oil consumption. i However, in the period of low oil prices through 1986-1991 that terminated with Gulf War-1, economic growth rates fell sharply throughout the OECD, with typically slow growth of oil demand itself reinforcing the fall in oil prices. We can particularly note that through 1974-76, that is including the period of rapid 'bounce back' or recovery in economic growth & oil demand of the NICs, their growth rates of oil consumption, by volume, were in the 12%-15% range despite much higher oil prices continuing to 'work through' the pricing structure of economic inputs. i Recession trends notably in the US, German & Japanese economies were overvalued, while the pro-growth impacts of generally higher oil prices as a factor in economic growth were underplayed or ignored. i |
| An Assessment of the Current Oil Price Rise and Its Impacts (tdctrade.com)
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| Oil, Jihad and DestinyOil, Jihad and Destiny |
| Economy restructuring and peak oil | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News |
| The Fall of Petroleum Civilization - peak oil |
| Peak Oil - Peak Economics | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News
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| petroleumworld |
| The Washington Monthly |
| Surging oil price - will it continue and what's the impact |
| Research - Hurricane Katrina - Economy - Oil - Gas - Energy - Prices - Natural Disaster - Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu |
| AFH LIBRARY - Peak Oil and the Extinction of Humanity |
| How to Avoid Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse - by Richard Heinbergi Meanwhile oil companies routinely (...) report reserve growth for fields discovered decades ago. i Moreover, even though there may be dispute as to the timing of these events, its ? becoming widely acknowledged that the world peak in all combined petroleum sources will have significant global economic consequences. Even if optimistic forecasts of the timing of the global production peak turn out to be accurate, the world is facing an historic change that is unprecedented in scope & depth of impact. i In short, the global peak in oil production is likely to lead to economic chaos & extreme geopolitical tensions, raising the spectres of war, revolution, terrorism, & even famine, unless nations adopt some method of cooperatively reducing their reliance on oil. |
| Economists see oil prices crimping growth - Martin Wolk: Eye on the Economy - MSNBC.com |
| ASPO - The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
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| NewsGateway |
| Public Domain Progress: Where is the Hirsch Report? |
| Richard Heinberg: THE PARTY'S OVERi Industrial nations also came to rely on an economic system built on the assumption that growth is normal & necessary, & that it can go on forever. When oil production peaks, those assumptions will come crashing down. i Assuming that the peak in global oil production occurs in the period from 2006 to 2015 & that there is an average 2 % decline in energy available to industrial societies each year afterward, in your imagination you will have taken a trip into the future, to perhaps the year 2050. i Petroleum geologists like Colin Campbell (...) point to simple facts like these: Oil discovery in the US peaked in the 1930s; oil production peaked roughly forty years later. i Global discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s.
Since production curves must eventually mirror discovery curves, global oil production will doubtless peak at some point in the foreseeable future. i
Solar & wind are renewable, but we now get less than one % of our national energy budget from them; rapid growth will be necessary if they are to replace even a significant fraction of the energy shortfall from post-peak oil. i
The oil peak will also impact international relations. |
| FuturePundit: Matthew Simmons On Softening Oil Peak Impact |
| Peak Oil scenarios |
| Untitled Document |
| 2005 Oil Economics |
| EconLog, The Peak in Oil Supply, Arnold Kling: Library of Economics and Liberty |
| Hustler Articles
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| Peak Oil Watch - Following coverage of oil production peak risks - CAMWEST |
| No 1, 2004 No 1, 2004 |
| Peak Oil News: BP Amoco's magic curve |
| The Cavalier Dailyi As this issue could have such grave consequences, Congress must lead the world into a comprehensive survey of the long term prospects for growth in petroleum production, & take action to correct the problem if the survey determines that the world's oil-fuelled economy is unsustainable. The central problem in the view of peak oil theorists is that the world's finite supply of oil cannot keep pace with its skyrocketing demand. i While the world's demand for oil has been rising, oil discover has been declining for decades. i After reviewing the state of the world oil stocks, the BBC cited him as saying, "Peaking is at hand, not years away. While the potential for a long-term decline in oil production may not be the most thrilling subject for a special on the nightly news, it would impact the lives of every person on the planet. As modern economies depend on cheap oil not only for virtually all of their transportation needs but also for the manufacturing of plastics & fertilizer, shortages in the supply of oil will lead to tremendous increases in costs for businesses that will force them to cut back on production & raise prices for consumers. i Such steps would delay the onset of declining oil production & help to build a bridge to energy sources that could sustain the world's prospects for continued economic growth & prosperity. The Department of Energy characterized the need for action in a Feb 2005 report that stated, "World oil peaking represents a problem like none other. i |
| FuturePundit |
| IV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETION |
| Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil |
| A Leftist Youth Journal Based in the U.S.
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| Daily Times - Site Edition |
| Katrina unlikely to derail national economy - Martin Wolk: Eye on the Economy - MSNBC.com |
| theedgedaily.com |
| UAE: Double-digit growth seen in 2005 | SCB Economic Updatei Of course, for the Middle East, higher oil prices are a boon to economic activity both directly & indirectly. i In 2004, oil production accounted for almost a 3rd of overall economic activity. Therefore, higher oil prices alone should contribute 11-12% to nominal GDP growth in 2005. i While the impact on production is only likely to be felt in 2006, the investment in this capacity is already boosting economic activity. i Meanwhile, increased oil production is expected to be a boon for real growth. i Looking over a longer time period, the key challenge for the UAE is to translate these strong fiscal surpluses into a sustained strong economic performance, even in the event that oil prices slump. i |
| The Cultural EconomistThe Cultural Economist |
| AltEngImpact of oil price still smallImpact of oil price still small: "High energy prices are a burden on households & could ultimately restrain economic growth but so far the impact has been modest, a top White House economic adviser said on Tue...After the storms, have oil & gasoline prices peaked?i
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| CERA examines possible global impact of China's energy situation | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News |
| Dollar on an oily slope | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News |
| BELLACIAO - Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil - William Engdahl - Collective Bellaciao |
| Dec 20 Peak Oil Economics & Money - What Underwrites our Dollar? David Ford 321gold |
| Regime Change Begins at Home |
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its ? not an easy thing to say that the lifestyle we take for granted is coming to an end, but I am now convinced that the next 10 years won't be like the last. i
| Overview - Energy Scenarios Ireland |
| Peak Oil: Life After the Oil CrashIn a 1999 speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney stated: By some estimates, there will be an average of 2-% annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively , a 3-% natural decline in production from existing reserves. The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth, undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn erodes the valuation of most entities quoted on Stock Exchanges.The oil driven "economic growth" Dr. Campbell speaks of is absolutely necessary for individuals, businesses, & governments to pay off their debts. EG ? , on June 28, 2005, Gary Duncan, the economics editor for the UK based Sun Times , reported that the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), aka "the central banker's central bank", had issued the following warnings regarding the economic fallout of further rises in the price of oil: Oil prices may well remain high.. . . . .As mentioned previously, Dick Cheney made the following statement in late 1999: By some estimates, there will be an average of 2-% annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively , a 3-% natural decline in production from existing reserves. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being & to our health — greater than anyone could ever imagine. Entitled "The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production," the report observed: Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (...), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide.Click Here to Go to Page 2 of LATOC Topics Covered on Page 2 Include : Increased Discovery/Exploration for Oil, Oil Sands & Oil Shale, Oil Industry Reactions to Peak Oil, Abiotic Oil Theory, Drilling in ANWR, Laws of Supply & Demand/Market Forces, Alternative.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,,-,-,,,',,,,,, |
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-- (c) James Lea, www.GreenLiving.co.uk, 2005 --